Orange County home sales for less than a residence’s total debt increased 33.8% in January from the year before, Southern California Multiple Listing Service figures show.
The listing service reported that 487 of January’s deals were “short sales” — or sales in which the purchase price is less than mortgage balance. That’s nearly 28% of all Orange County resales traded through the MLS.
At the same time, bank-owned foreclosed homes sold that month fell nearly two-thirds from the previous January to 293 transactions — a 62% drop.
In January 2008, nearly 800 bank-owned homes were sold, accounting for half of all homes sold through the MLS. This past January, they made up 16.8%.
The combined total for all types of “distressed sales” accounted 49.3% of all MLS deals this past January, compared to 77% a year earlier. The SoCal MLS reported that distressed sales totaled 862 in January, down 27.6% from the previous January’s total of nearly 1,200.
Here are the SoCal MLS figures for distressed sales for the past 13 months:
| Month | ShortSales | BankOwned | Other | Total |
|---|
| Jan | 364 | 772 | 55 | 1,191 |
| Feb | 294 | 658 | 24 | 976 |
| Mar | 346 | 772 | 43 | 1,161 |
| Apr | 392 | 701 | 33 | 1,126 |
| May | 401 | 684 | 43 | 1,128 |
| Jun | 468 | 595 | 33 | 1,096 |
| Jul | 448 | 595 | 35 | 1,078 |
| Aug | 459 | 495 | 39 | 993 |
| Sep | 477 | 412 | 23 | 912 |
| Oct | 530 | 443 | 37 | 1,010 |
| Nov. | 405 | 361 | 30 | 796 |
| Dec. | 547 | 372 | 37 | 956 |
| Jan | 487 | 293 | 82 | 862 |
Whether you are an experienced investor or new homebuyer, buying foreclosed properties from the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is a great way to make money in the real estate market.
Many of these HUD homes are now being offered for a fraction of their market value – sometimes 30-50 percent!
According to its Web site – www.hud.gov – the Federal agency is responsible for national policy and programs that address America's housing needs, improve and develop the nation's communities, and enforce fair housing laws.
When homeowners with HUD-insured mortgages default on their home loans, HUD forecloses the properties and sells them to the general public at public auctions. HUD wants to sell these properties quickly to recover as much as possible on its investment.
That's the reason you can find great properties for dirt-cheap prices. And, you can find these outrageous deals on Foreclosure.com every day without paying a penny.
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Foreclosures in North County more than doubled in August from the same month a year ago, according to a report released Thursday.
The rate of properties entering foreclosure in the region was essentially flat from the last few months with about 640 homes going back to banks and about 1,000 houses entering foreclosure, according to a data release by ForeclosureRadar, a Northern California research firm.
While bank-owned foreclosures doubled, the rate of new foreclosure notices, known as notices of default, jumped by only 43 percent from the same month a year ago, the smallest year-over-year increase since November 2007.
But that might not mean an end to North County's foreclosure process, as the rate remains high by historical standards and the drop in percentage increase from a year ago is mainly because of a leap in August 2007 numbers from the previous month, not a decrease in last month's numbers.
Oceanside, Escondido and Vista led the way in foreclosures, representing 64 percent of all North County bank seizures.
ForeclosureRadar also showed that foreclosures across the county mirrored North County's rate, as total filings in San Diego County, including bank seizures and initial foreclosures, increased 79 percent in August from a year ago.
In all, 7,652 properties received a foreclosure filing in August, according to the report.
Foreclosure rates leaped similarly across the state, leading reluctant home buyers to jump back into the real estate market, according to a report Thursday by the California Association of Realtors.
In the association's survey, 69 percent of home buyers said that price declines contributed to their decision to purchase.
And 40 percent said low interest rates allowed buyers to move to a better location. That number could increase as mortgage rates have fallen more than half a percentage point during the last week following the government takeover of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
North las vegas, Nevada - The city's office of housing and neighborhood services is holding a foreclosure education workshop from 10 a.m. To 5 p.m on Saturday at the Texas Station.
The City of North Las Vegas is holding a free workshop this weekend to help the workshop will present options available to homeowners facing foreclosure and will include opportunities for attendees to speak with foreclosure counselors. Personal information provided to foreclosure counselors will be kept confidential.
The workshop will provide basic information such as the definition of key financial and foreclosure terms, from deed-in-lieu to forbearance and short-sale.
Several local agencies will be on hand to provide information and resources to families facing foreclosure. Participating agencies include neighborhood housing services of southern nevada, consumer credit counseling, nevada fair housing, the department of housing and urban development, the nevada association of hispanic real estate professionals, nevada bankers' collaborative and the women's development center.
For more information, or to make a reservation, call the City of North Las Vegas Office of Housing and Neighborhood Services at (702) 633-1532.
This past February Daniel Mudd, the recently ousted president of the Federal National Mortgage Association ("Fannie Mae"), gave a speech to the National Association of Homebuilders in which he laid out plans to "weather the housing market crisis" (see below and the following three pages). Mudd told homebuilders that Fannie Mae's "prudent steps" to keep the mortgage market "stable, liquid and affordable" included "cutting our dividend" to investors (see Page 3). Mudd didn't mention his own sacrifices (according to the Washington Post, one month earlier the board had stopped paying his $100,000-per-year country club dues), but he predicted that the increase in defaults and foreclosures would take "at least another tough year to get through" (see Page 4).
Mudd explained that although the goal was "avoiding foreclosure at all costs," once all such efforts were exhausted, "our real estate team comes in and prepares to put the house on the market" (see Page 2). This mitigation effort, Mudd said, helped resell more than half the foreclosed properties that "came into our inventory" in 2007. The remainder "sit on the market driving down local home prices and property values" (see Page 3).
In his talk, Mudd stressed the importance of giving defaulting mortgage holders who face foreclosure "an exit with dignity" (below). On Sept. 7, the federal conservator who took over Fannie Mae foreclosed on Mudd. Mudd has hiredpolitically powerful Washington attorney Bob Barnett to negotiate his severance, which is expected to be a very dignified $9 million.
IRVINE, Calif., July 10, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- RealtyTrac(R) (
http://www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its June 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report(TM), which shows foreclosure filings -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- were reported on 252,363 U.S. properties during the month, a 3 percent decrease from the previous month but still a 53 percent increase from June 2007. The report also shows one in every 501 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the month.
RealtyTrac publishes the largest and most comprehensive national database of foreclosure and bank-owned properties, with over 1.5 million properties from over 2,200 counties across the country, and is the foreclosure data provider to MSN Real Estate, Yahoo! Real Estate and The Wall Street Journal's Real Estate Journal.
"June was the second straight month with more than a quarter million properties nationwide receiving foreclosure filings," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "Foreclosure activity slipped 3 percent lower from the previous month, but the year-over-year increase of more than 50 percent indicates we have not yet reached the top of this foreclosure cycle. Bank repossessions, or REOs, continue to increase at a much faster pace than default notices or auction notices. REOs in June were up 171 percent from a year ago, while default notices were up 38 percent and auction notices were up 22 percent over the same time period."
Nevada, California, Arizona post top state foreclosure rates
Despite slight monthly decreases in foreclosure activity, Nevada, California and Arizona continued to document the three highest state foreclosure rates in June.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 8,713 Nevada properties during the month, up nearly 85 percent from June 2007, and one in every 122 Nevada households received a foreclosure filing -- more than four times the national average.
One in every 192 California properties received a foreclosure filing in June, the nation's second highest state foreclosure rate and 2.6 times the national average.
One in every 201 Arizona properties received a foreclosure filing during the month, the nation's third highest state foreclosure rate and nearly 2.5 times the national average. Foreclosure filings were reported on 12,950 Arizona properties, down less than 1 percent from the previous month but still up nearly 127 percent from June 2007.
Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the top 10 were Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana and Utah.
California, Florida, Ohio report highest foreclosure totals
Foreclosure filings were reported on 68,666 California properties in June, down nearly 5 percent from the previous month but still up nearly 77 percent from June 2007. California's total was highest among the states for the 18th consecutive month.
Florida continued to register the nation's second highest foreclosure total, with foreclosure filings reported on 40,351 properties in June -- an increase of nearly 8 percent from the previous month and an increase of nearly 92 percent from June 2007. One in every 211 Florida properties received a foreclosure filing during the month, the nation's fourth highest state foreclosure rate and 2.4 times the national average.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 13,194 Ohio properties in June, the nation's third highest state foreclosure total. Ohio's foreclosure activity increased 7 percent from the previous month and 11 percent from June 2007. The state's foreclosure rate ranked No. 6 among the 50 states.
Other states in the top 10 for total properties with filings were Arizona, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, Nevada, Illinois and New York.
California and Florida cities account for 9 of top 10 metro rates
For the third month in a row, California and Florida cities accounted for nine out of the top 10 metropolitan foreclosure rates among the 230 metropolitan areas tracked in the report.
Seven California metro areas were in the top 10, and the top three rates were in California: Stockton, with one in every 72 households receiving a foreclosure filing; Merced, with one in every 77 households receiving a foreclosure filing; and Modesto, with one in every 86 households receiving a foreclosure filing. Other California metro areas in the top 10 were Riverside-San Bernardino at No. 5; Vallejo-Fairfield at No. 7; Bakersfield at No. 8; and Salinas-Monterey at No. 10.
The top metro foreclosure rate in Florida was once again posted by Cape Coral-Fort Myers, where one in every 91 households received a foreclosure filing -- fourth highest among the nation's metro foreclosure rates. The foreclosure rate in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., ranked No. 9.
Las Vegas continued to be the only city outside of California and Florida with a foreclosure rate ranking among the top 10. One in every 99 Las Vegas households received a foreclosure filing in June, more than five times the national average and No. 6 among the metro areas.
Metro areas with foreclosure rates among the top 20 included Phoenix at No. 12, Detroit at No. 13, Miami at No. 15 and San Diego at No. 17.
Report methodology
The RealtyTrac Monthly U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the month -- broken out by type of filing at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level. RealtyTrac's report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default - Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction - Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during the month -- which is extremely rare -- only the most recent filing is counted in the report. The report also checks if the same type of document was filed against a property in a previous month. If so, and if that previous filing occurred within the estimated foreclosure timeframe for the state the property is in, the report does not count the property in the current month.
U.S. Foreclosure Market Data by State - June 2008
Properties with Foreclosure Filings
Rate
Rank State Name NOD LIS NTS NFS REO
-- U.S. 53,544 48,996 53,904 24,356 71,563
40 Alabama 2 0 354 0 418
31 Alaska 1 0 167 0 24
3 Arizona 7 0 8,646 0 4,297
24 Arkansas 55 0 874 0 197
2 California 37,989 0 10,053 0 20,624
7 Colorado 9 0 3,034 0 1,835
19 Connecticut 0 1,217 2 323 81
34 Delaware 0 0 0 147 67
District of Columbia 188 0 252 0 79
4 Florida 0 25,107 28 9,680 5,536
8 Georgia 40 0 5,326 0 3,348
45 Hawaii 12 0 103 0 19
21 Idaho 469 0 103 0 94
13 Illinois 0 5,513 24 574 2,046
9 Indiana 0 1,434 29 1,925 1,463
42 Iowa 0 0 270 0 155
36 Kansas 0 116 5 257 221
39 Kentucky 0 192 8 314 217
43 Louisiana 0 1 2 417 164
38 Maine 99 0 143 0 34
27 Maryland 0 1,026 17 318 443
20 Massachusetts 0 683 22 1,225 1,101
5 Michigan 2,413 0 4,897 0 4,715
29 Minnesota 23 0 929 0 742
44 Mississippi 0 0 201 0 138
16 Missouri 1,543 0 1,049 0 860
46 Montana 2 0 81 0 11
33 Nebraska 0 34 6 318 77
1 Nevada 4,495 0 1,085 0 3,133
26 New Hampshire 0 0 307 0 196
14 New Jersey 0 3,126 7 1,371 496
37 New Mexico 0 252 0 56 67
32 New York 0 3,751 7 752 857
25 North Carolina 2,150 0 185 0 1,130
50 North Dakota 0 0 0 0 11
6 Ohio 0 4,534 74 4,033 4,553
30 Oklahoma 350 0 462 0 361
17 Oregon 938 0 953 0 156
28 Pennsylvania 0 1,066 6 1,647 1,341
15 Rhode Island 0 0 399 0 194
35 South Carolina 0 171 11 134 747
49 South Dakota 0 0 1 22 6
12 Tennessee 1,329 0 1,741 0 1,288
18 Texas 152 0 6,132 0 4,768
10 Utah 243 0 1,030 0 228
47 Vermont 0 0 6 0 27
11 Virginia 1,033 0 2,695 0 1,527
22 Washington 2 0 2,048 0 692
48 West Virginia 0 0 57 0 27
23 Wisconsin 0 773 17 843 730
41 Wyoming 0 0 56 0 22
Properties with Foreclosure Filings
% Change % Change
Rate 1/every X from from
Rank State Name Total HH (rate) May 08 June 07
-- U.S. 252,363 501 -3.40 53.28
40 Alabama 774 2,726 54.18* 21.70*
31 Alaska 192 1,440 12.28 143.04
3 Arizona 12,950 201 -0.07 126.76
24 Arkansas 1,126 1,131 -9.19 -8.75
2 California 68,666 192 -4.54 76.97
7 Colorado 4,878 429 -9.62 -14.50
19 Connecticut 1,623 882 -0.49 -31.98
34 Delaware 214 1,789 -18.01 116.16*
District of Columbia 519 545 33.08 2952.94*
4 Florida 40,351 211 7.99 91.83
8 Georgia 8,714 444 -14.91 21.18
45 Hawaii 134 3,732 -17.28 18.58
21 Idaho 666 924 -17.57 19.78
13 Illinois 8,157 637 -15.65 41.74
9 Indiana 4,851 568 -0.96 17.97
42 Iowa 425 3,107 -5.56 -7.00
36 Kansas 599 2,017 -12.94 65.01
39 Kentucky 731 2,583 -1.88 -9.19
43 Louisiana 584 3,134 -16.93 -17.40
38 Maine 276 2,504 14.05 61.40
27 Maryland 1,804 1,275 -23.27 -17.70
20 Massachusetts 3,031 894 -54.60 -2.76
5 Michigan 12,025 375 -6.00 19.15
29 Minnesota 1,694 1,348 -23.14 75.18
44 Mississippi 339 3,662 83.24* 56.94*
16 Missouri 3,452 760 -18.43 78.31
46 Montana 94 4,596 -31.39 25.33
33 Nebraska 435 1,781 35.09 180.65
1 Nevada 8,713 122 -3.29 84.52
26 New Hampshire 503 1,173 -25.59 17.25
14 New Jersey 5,000 695 -32.71 4.87
37 New Mexico 375 2,267 -16.29 110.67*
32 New York 5,367 1,473 1.78 21.62
25 North Carolina 3,465 1,163 -8.48 78.33
50 North Dakota 11 27,982 -50.00 -73.81
6 Ohio 13,194 382 7.31 11.07
30 Oklahoma 1,173 1,370 -3.30 53.53
17 Oregon 2,047 775 29.56* 132.61*
28 Pennsylvania 4,060 1,343 26.24 79.81
15 Rhode Island 593 758 8.61 108.80
35 South Carolina 1,063 1,859 -21.26 168.43*
49 South Dakota 29 12,166 -3.33 -14.71
12 Tennessee 4,358 615 3.94 30.13
18 Texas 11,052 835 9.83 29.64
10 Utah 1,501 600 12.35* 140.54*
47 Vermont 33 9,381 1000.00* 312.50*
11 Virginia 5,255 615 8.87 203.58
22 Washington 2,742 984 9.77 68.63
48 West Virginia 84 10,450 100.00 -44.74
23 Wisconsin 2,363 1,072 17.68 154.91
41 Wyoming 78 3,066 30.00 168.97
* Actual increase may not be as high due to data collection changes or improvements
Buying a home is a major investment, so it´s understandable that you want to get the best deal possible. With the housing market in a decline, and foreclosures on the rise, many people have the idea that buying a foreclosure could be the deal of a lifetime. While it´s possible to find a house in foreclosure for less than market value, making this kind of purchase is not a good idea for the real estate novice. There are a number of details to consider so that your supposed unbeatable deal doesn´t turn into a quick and painful loss.
Preparing Your Bid
Make sure you check with a local real estate agent before making a bid. The mortgage company wants to cover the balance on the loan plus any expenses they might have. If the home you are considering was overfinanced, however, or the market has dropped in that area, you may be better off buying a home that is not in foreclosure.
Another important thing to remember is that foreclosures are usually sold "as is." That means you want to cover yourself by inspecting the property before making an offer. If it isn´t possible for you to do an inspection first, you should have a provision in the contract that allows for an inspection prior to closing. Sometimes repairs are minimal, but if a homeowner doesn´t have the money to pay the mortgage, chances are there isn´t money for maintenance either. There are also instances where the owners intentionally damage the home or remove fixtures and appliances before moving out.
Calculate the Cost
Once you list necessary repairs, determine what the costs will be. This requires a little homework. Maybe you´re handy with home repairs. In that case, the price of fixtures or a couple of cans of paint may be all you need. If you´re not a handyman, or if the repairs are more involved, have a contractor give you an estimate. Find out what it will cost as well as how long repairs will take. Time is money. If you can't find a contractor immediately or if repairs will take an extended amount of time, you could be losing out.
Can You Flip It?
Flipping is when you buy a home at a low price with the intention of making the necessary repairs, then quickly sell it at a profit. It sounds great, but is often easier said than done. Before you consider flipping:
1. Know the Market. Putting lots of money into repairs might make the house more appealing, but you don´t want to put more cash into a home than you´ll be able to get back. That´s why it´s important to contact an agent that´s familiar with the local real estate market to help you out.
2. Have a Reliable Contractor. For every month the house isn't occupied, the mortgage payment has to come out of your pocket. Can you afford it if it takes three or four months for someone to complete repairs?
3. Consider Commissions & Fees. In addition to calculating the value of the home and the repairs, also consider the costs of selling the house. Since the seller typically pays for commissions, build that amount into your offer. Keep in mind, too, that sellers don´t normally get their original asking price. Leave some room for negotiating.
It's no secret that the U.S. housing market is cyclical and in the midst of yet another painful correction. The causes and characteristics of these cycles vary, at least in some respects, but the implications for homebuyers, home sellers and homeowners remain remarkably reliable as the cycles roll by.
Housing cycles aren't all alike, yet over long periods of time a basic pattern can be discerned, says Mark Dotzour, chief economist of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.
A cycle doesn't really have a start or a stop, but to pick a point at random, we might say that a housing cycle "starts" when economic activity heats up and interest rates rise. Higher interest rates make housing less affordable, so demand decreases and home prices fall. Then, as economic activity slows and interest rates decline, housing again becomes more affordable and, consequently, demand and prices go up. Then the cycle repeats. Housing tends to lead the economy and thus can be an indicator of future economic activity.
Subprime loans goosed demand for housing
The severity of the current housing cycle has been exacerbated, Dotzour explains, by two factors.
2 factors exacerbating the market's woes:
• Lenders flooded the housing markets with subprime loans that enabled borrowers who had poor credit to purchase homes they otherwise wouldn't have been able to afford. These risky loans were then securitized and sold to investors. Demand outstripped supply and prices rose too fast.
• When these risky borrowers weren't able to pay back their loans, the lenders cut off the easy credit. Builders, who had expanded to meet the new demand, couldn't stop building new homes fast enough to match the sudden disappearance of buyers. Supply exceeded demand and prices dropped too quickly.
"In this cycle, we had a real abrupt change in demand (because) a certain segment of the homebuying public, mainly subprime and Alt-A buyers, were just completely shut out of the market overnight," Dotzour says. "Then what happens is that you get too much inventory and prices go soft."
Exuberant investment added to housing market frenzy
Speculation by investors and homebuyers' expectations of a major financial payoff also make housing more volatile than other economic sectors, says Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. This factor can be represented along a continuum between consumption, or the purchase of a home primarily for personal use, and investment, or the purchase of a home primarily to generate a capital gain or profit.
Phoenix and Las Vegas are good examples of speculative markets in the current cycle, Retsinas says. In 2006, more than 30 percent of the homes sold in those two cities were purchased by investors rather than homeowner-occupants. Both cities had experienced rapid price appreciation and accelerated new-home construction, which were followed by sharply higher foreclosure rates.
Housing cycles can be challenging for people whose jobs are directly related to the volume of home sales or mortgage originations. In the two decades from 1980 to 2000, there were approximately 620,000 to 820,000 Realtors in the United States. That figure jumped from approximately 750,000 at the end of 1999 to more than 1.3 million last August, according to a recent commentary by Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, or NAR. Due to last year's downturn in home sales, the association's membership "now is turning sharply lower," Yun wrote.
U.S. mortgage companies, which hired like crazy during the mortgage boom of the early 2000s, shed more than 111,000 jobs in the 12 months that ended Feb. 29, 2008, according to U.S. government data. More than 14,000 jobs were lost in the first quarter of this year alone, according to an industry newsletter. Large numbers of construction jobs have disappeared as well.
How supply and demand work
Housing markets are cyclical because "the relationship between supply and demand is not in equilibrium," says Retsinas. This lack of equilibrium results in booms and busts that recur in cyclical patterns of varying duration.
A real estate boom, or "seller's market," occurs when buyers want to purchase more homes than are for sale at current prices. These top-of-the-cycle markets typically are characterized by rising prices, multiple offers, fast sales, easy financing and expansion in new home building.
A real estate bust, or "buyer's market," happens when more homes are for sale than buyers want to purchase at current prices. Characteristics of these bottom-of-the-cycle markets typically include falling prices, slower sales, financing and affordability constraints, short sales, foreclosures and a contraction in new home construction.
Home prices turn up and down over time
U.S. median home prices have climbed steadily upward each decade for at least the last 40 years. In 1987, for example, the national median was $85,600. Ten years later, in 1997, the median was $126,000, and 20 years later, in 2007, the median was $219,000, according to the NAR. But home prices also experienced a severe downturn in the early 1990s and, most recently, a major boom in the mid-2000s.
 |
| Median home prices |
|
|
| January | $82,900 | $123,400 | $209,300 |
| February | $85,600 | $121,200 | $212,400 |
| March | $85,200 | $123,700 | $216,200 |
| April | $86,000 | $124,700 | $219,300 |
| May | $86,000 | $128,000 | $221,900 |
| June | $85,900 | $131,400 | $229,200 |
| July | $88,300 | $131,000 | $228,500 |
| August | $86,500 | $131,600 | $223,700 |
| September | $85,500 | $131,300 | $208,600 |
| October | $84,600 | $129,300 | $204,800 |
| November | $85,000 | $129,500 | $207,300 |
| December | $85,400 | $131,400 | $205,000 |
| Source: National Association of Realtors |
Prices naturally fluctuate from month to month due to seasonality and other factors. Median prices are a relatively crude instrument, because they aren't adjusted for inflation, lump numerous local markets into broad geographical areas and don't account for variations in the mix of homes sold, a weakness that can tilt the median upward or downward. Nonetheless, median prices often are looked to as a broad measurement of housing market trends.
Bargains may be opportunities for buyers
The chief risk that cyclicality poses for homebuyers and sellers is that local home prices may fall further as the cycle deteriorates.
Whether the current phase is a prudent time to buy depends on an assessment of future prices. Two indicators -- builders' concessions and loan delinquencies -- may suggest prices have bottomed out, according to Dotzour.
2 indicators that prices have hit bottom
• Concessions. The "most fundamental" indicator is whether homebuilders are still offering price concessions and extra amenities to buyers. As long as concessions are on offer, buyers should be wary, he suggested. Yet builders' concessions can be very attractive, especially for buyers who plan to own their new homes for at least a couple of years.
"If you are going to stay more than two years, now might be a good time to buy one of these heavily discounted homes on which builders are offering major concessions ... The supply and demand situation is liable to correct itself within about 24 months or so, and at that point, those concessions will be gone," Dotzour says.
• Delinquencies. Another indicator is the rate of late payments on subprime mortgages. Because the delinquency rate on each "graduating class" of mortgages tends to peak about 18 months to 24 months after the loans were originated, the mortgages from 1999 to 2005 have already peaked, the class of 2006 is starting to peak and the class of 2007 is "still going through the roof with no sign of abating," Dotzour says. There is no class of 2008 because such mortgages have been virtually extinct this year.
"The party stopped in about July 2007, so if you take that out 18 months, that's the spring of 2009. At that point, the last class of subprime mortgages will have peaked in terms of delinquency ... so the pressure on prices coming from foreclosures is likely to peak" at that time or perhaps in another 90 days, Dotzour says.
Don't sell just to escape price declines
These indicators may also help sellers who've decided to wait a while before they put their home on the market. Discretionary sellers may be able to capture a "normal" price once builders have reduced their inventory and banks have sold off their supply of foreclosed homes. That "normal" price will be "lower than it was a year and a half ago, but not subject to artificial discounts from builders" or the effects of cut-rate bank-owned properties, Dotzour says.
Home sellers also need to consider what they intend to do with the proceeds of their home sale, Retsinas says. Those who plan to reinvest in another property, perhaps in a lower-cost market, may be able to recoup some of the reduced value on their current home through a lower price on their next residence.
Despite the inherent cyclicality, it's extremely difficult to "time" housing markets. Turning points are rarely apparent until after the fact, Retsinas says, and because all real estate is local, national trends may be meaningless in many markets. Even today, some housing markets have strong demand, little supply and prices on the upswing.
Homeowners who plan to stay put needn't worry much about housing market cycles, experts agree. "Over the long term," Retsinas concludes, "residential real estate does OK."
Los Angeles, CA, April 08, 2008 --(
PR.com)-- Default Research, the premier provider of foreclosure real estate data in Southern California, is reporting that Notice of Defaults and Notices of Trustee Sales were up approximately 32,800 last month.
According to Default Research (
www.defaultresearch.com), the Inland Empire was the hardest hit region in Southern California in March 2008. In Riverside County, 7.9 percent of homes faced foreclosure and in San Bernardino 6 percent of homes entered the foreclosure process.
“Housing inventories continue to increase while median home prices are still declining,” said Serdar Bankaci, founder of Default Research. “However, for the savvy investor armed with the Default Research foreclosure lists, there are deals to be made. Those with the cash or credit can snatch up a nice portfolio of homes and turn them into rental properties. Residential vacancy rates are low and rents appear to be going up.”
Below is a unique and accurate local look at how the Default Research foreclosure statistics affect your area:
Los Angeles Foreclosures – Hardest hit cities Los Angeles (2060), Lancaster (869), Palmdale (852), Long Beach (499) and Santa Clarita (264)
**Note: Although Los Angeles County did not have the highest percentage of households in foreclosure, the number of Notice of Defaults and Notice of Trustees Sales in Los Angeles Counties increased to more than 10,000 for the first time according to Default Research.**
Orange County Foreclosures - Hardest hit cities Santa Ana (629), Anaheim (413), Garden Grove (211), Orange (150), Fullerton (136)
Riverside Foreclosures - Hardest hit cities Riverside (1028), Moreno Valley (945), Corona (742), Murrieta (494), and Perris (478)
San Diego Foreclosures - Hardest hit cities San Diego (1620), Chula Vista (582), Escondido (373), Oceanside (370) and El Cajon (260)
San Bernardino Foreclosures – Hardest hit cities Fontana (770), San Bernardino (668), Victorville (609), Hesperia (384), and Rialto (341)
Sacramento, CA, April 09, 2008 --(
PR.com)-- Default Research, the premier provider of foreclosure real estate data in Northern California, is reporting that Notice of Defaults and Notices of Trustee Sales were up 4.6 percent in March 2008, which followed a month when foreclosures were down 9 percent.
According to Default Research (
www.defaultresearch.com), the hardest hit areas currently are San Joaquin and Sacramento with over 5.5 percent of homes entering foreclosure. Market indicators in these regions show declining home inventories in the past six months and median home sales prices continue to slip. But, the area may be nearing the end of the foreclosure crunch.
More than half of Las Vegas home sales in March were foreclosures or short sales, the president of Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors said Monday.
The association reported 1,478 escrow closings for single-family homes during the month, a 34.6 percent increase from February. It was the third straight monthly increase. Sales are down 7.9 percent from the same month a year ago.
"What an increase we had in March," association president said. "People are coming outside, the weather's getting warm and they've heard doom and gloom all winter long. There's some great deals out there, and they're not going to last forever."
Inventory of homes listed for sale is at 22,763, up 1.2 percent from February and up 6.9 percent from March 2007
Median prices declined 1.4 percent to $243,169 as bank-owned properties continue to sell below market value, Kelley said. Foreclosures and short sales, or homes sold for less than the mortgage owed, accounted for 773 sales in March, 52.3 percent of the total.
While home prices are still declining, down 20.3 percent from a year ago, Kelley said she doesn't expect them to go much lower because they're now selling for less than what it would cost to build that same home today.
She said foreclosure homes are getting multiple offers. It's taking longer for banks to approve sales and for buyers to close escrow.
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| 1 | 89031 | North Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 368 | 285 | 88 | 741 |
| 2 | 89131 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 304 | 289 | 72 | 665 |
| 3 | 89148 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 315 | 226 | 73 | 614 |
| 4 | 89108 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 303 | 232 | 38 | 573 |
| 5 | 89052 | Henderson | NV | Clark | 247 | 187 | 50 | 484 |
| 6 | 89139 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 246 | 159 | 71 | 476 |
| 7 | 89129 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 235 | 192 | 46 | 473 |
| 8 | 95206 | Stockton | CA | San Joaquin | 268 | 56 | 143 | 467 |
| 9 | 48228 | Detroit | MI | Wayne | 88 | 220 | 145 | 453 |
| 10 | 89123 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 243 | 159 | 46 | 448 |
| 11 | 89147 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 220 | 167 | 50 | 437 |
| 12 | 89110 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 243 | 155 | 36 | 434 |
| 13 | 89117 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 234 | 158 | 41 | 433 |
| 14 | 33971 | Lehigh Acres | FL | Lee | 359 | 43 | 29 | 431 |
| 15 | 89141 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 200 | 190 | 41 | 431 |
| 16 | 94565 | Pittsburg | CA | Contra Costa | 237 | 74 | 119 | 430 |
| 17 | 89128 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 216 | 170 | 40 | 426 |
| 18 | 89122 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 228 | 144 | 39 | 411 |
| 19 | 89032 | North Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 215 | 150 | 43 | 408 |
| 20 | 89149 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 208 | 161 | 38 | 407 |
| 21 | 48205 | Detroit | MI | Wayne | 81 | 190 | 133 | 404 |
| 22 | 48224 | Detroit | MI | Wayne | 80 | 183 | 139 | 402 |
| 23 | 89183 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 205 | 161 | 33 | 399 |
| 24 | 89081 | North Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 180 | 169 | 49 | 398 |
| 25 | 33993 | Cape Coral | FL | Lee | 317 | 56 | 23 | 396 |
| 26 | 93535 | Lancaster | CA | Los Angeles | 185 | 75 | 114 | 374 |
| 27 | 93550 | Palmdale | CA | Los Angeles | 195 | 61 | 110 | 366 |
| 28 | 92563 | Murrieta | CA | Riverside | 169 | 57 | 134 | 360 |
| 29 | 92336 | Fontana | CA | San Bernardino | 199 | 56 | 99 | 354 |
| 30 | 89074 | Henderson | NV | Clark | 192 | 117 | 35 | 344 |
| 31 | 89121 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 191 | 122 | 24 | 337 |
| 32 | 33914 | Cape Coral | FL | Lee | 249 | 57 | 18 | 324 |
| 33 | 89178 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 172 | 122 | 29 | 323 |
| 34 | 89084 | North Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 144 | 142 | 34 | 320 |
| 35 | 48219 | Detroit | MI | Wayne | 69 | 142 | 100 | 311 |
| 36 | 92571 | Perris | CA | Riverside | 162 | 45 | 101 | 308 |
| 37 | 92345 | Hesperia | CA | San Bernardino | 174 | 45 | 88 | 307 |
| 38 | 22193 | Woodbridge | VA | Prince William | 104 | 177 | 24 | 305 |
| 39 | 34953 | Port Saint Lucie | FL | Saint Lucie | 239 | 50 | 16 | 305 |
| 40 | 95823 | Sacramento | CA | Sacramento | 151 | 50 | 104 | 305 |
| 41 | 33909 | Cape Coral | FL | Lee | 214 | 72 | 18 | 304 |
| 42 | 89130 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 140 | 127 | 35 | 302 |
| 43 | 92553 | Moreno Valley | CA | Riverside | 153 | 57 | 92 | 302 |
| 44 | 89011 | Henderson | NV | Clark | 177 | 104 | 18 | 299 |
| 45 | 94509 | Antioch | CA | Contra Costa | 160 | 45 | 91 | 296 |
| 46 | 85022 | Phoenix | AZ | Maricopa | 0 | 287 | 8 | 295 |
| 47 | 80013 | Aurora | CO | Arapahoe | 3 | 184 | 107 | 294 |
| 48 | 93635 | Los Banos | CA | Merced | 187 | 28 | 75 | 290 |
| 49 | 89115 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 160 | 107 | 20 | 287 |
| 50 | 48227 | Detroit | MI | Wayne | 56 | 140 | 89 | 285 |
| 51 | 44105 | Cleveland | OH | Cuyahoga | 93 | 77 | 112 | 282 |
| 52 | 95376 | Tracy | CA | San Joaquin | 155 | 50 | 68 | 273 |
| 53 | 92376 | Rialto | CA | San Bernardino | 163 | 41 | 68 | 272 |
| 54 | 92503 | Riverside | CA | Riverside | 141 | 57 | 73 | 271 |
| 55 | 93536 | Lancaster | CA | Los Angeles | 148 | 51 | 72 | 271 |
| 56 | 89107 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 135 | 109 | 24 | 268 |
| 57 | 48235 | Detroit | MI | Wayne | 56 | 127 | 82 | 265 |
| 58 | 95828 | Sacramento | CA | Sacramento | 145 | 35 | 84 | 264 |
| 59 | 92555 | Moreno Valley | CA | Riverside | 132 | 44 | 85 | 261 |
| 60 | 33025 | Hollywood | FL | Broward | 185 | 53 | 20 | 258 |
| 61 | 94531 | Antioch | CA | Contra Costa | 144 | 35 | 78 | 257 |
| 62 | 89002 | Henderson | NV | Clark | 141 | 92 | 21 | 254 |
| 63 | 89103 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 147 | 91 | 14 | 252 |
| 64 | 89113 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 132 | 99 | 21 | 252 |
| 65 | 89142 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 144 | 87 | 21 | 252 |
| 66 | 48234 | Detroit | MI | Wayne | 56 | 130 | 65 | 251 |
| 67 | 92592 | Temecula | CA | Riverside | 124 | 54 | 69 | 247 |
| 68 | 33313 | Fort Lauderdale | FL | Broward | 177 | 37 | 21 | 235 |
| 69 | 95758 | Elk Grove | CA | Sacramento | 118 | 30 | 87 | 235 |
| 70 | 95209 | Stockton | CA | San Joaquin | 127 | 44 | 63 | 234 |
| 71 | 92530 | Lake Elsinore | CA | Riverside | 118 | 49 | 66 | 233 |
| 72 | 92880 | Corona | CA | Riverside | 117 | 33 | 82 | 232 |
| 73 | 93551 | Palmdale | CA | Los Angeles | 118 | 39 | 75 | 232 |
| 74 | 30310 | Atlanta | GA | Fulton | 3 | 177 | 50 | 230 |
| 75 | 33160 | North Miami Beach | FL | Miami-Dade | 175 | 38 | 17 | 230 |
| 76 | 92557 | Moreno Valley | CA | Riverside | 122 | 35 | 72 | 229 |
| 77 | 89014 | Henderson | NV | Clark | 111 | 94 | 22 | 227 |
| 78 | 89156 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 120 | 84 | 23 | 227 |
| 79 | 92562 | Murrieta | CA | Riverside | 100 | 47 | 77 | 224 |
| 80 | 94513 | Brentwood | CA | Contra Costa | 122 | 36 | 65 | 223 |
| 81 | 94533 | Fairfield | CA | Solano | 129 | 36 | 58 | 223 |
| 82 | 92392 | Victorville | CA | San Bernardino | 131 | 33 | 57 | 221 |
| 83 | 95210 | Stockton | CA | San Joaquin | 117 | 47 | 56 | 220 |
| 84 | 89015 | Henderson | NV | Clark | 118 | 82 | 19 | 219 |
| 85 | 92335 | Fontana | CA | San Bernardino | 118 | 37 | 64 | 219 |
| 86 | 33023 | Hollywood | FL | Broward | 142 | 51 | 25 | 218 |
| 87 | 89145 | Las Vegas | NV | Clark | 100 | 95 | 22 | 217 |
| 88 | 33990 | Cape Coral | FL | Lee | 164 | 37 | 15 | 216 |
| 89 | 60628 | Chicago | IL | Cook | 142 | 41 | 32 | 215 |
| 90 | 95377 | Tracy | CA | San Joaquin | 123 | 32 | 57 | 212 |
| 91 | 33311 | Fort Lauderdale | FL | Broward | 137 | 46 | 28 | 211 |
| 92 | 33064 | Pompano Beach | FL | Broward | 151 | 40 | 19 | 210 |
| 93 | 33131 | Miami | FL | Miami-Dade | 157 | 32 | 21 | 210 |
| 94 | 92154 | San Diego | CA | San Diego | 111 | 43 | 52 | 206 |
| 95 | 92584 | Menifee | CA | Riverside | 102 | 32 | 72 | 206 |
| 96 | 95624 | Elk Grove | CA | Sacramento | 126 | 26 | 54 | 206 |
| 97 | 94591 | Vallejo | CA | Solano | 114 | 37 | 53 | 204 |
| 98 | 48221 | Detroit | MI | Wayne | 41 | 92 | 70 | 203 |
| 99 | 22191 | Woodbridge | VA | Prince William | 75 | 107 | 20 | 202 |
| 100 | 33027 | Hollywood | FL | Broward | 154 | 32 | 16 | 202 |
Many of valley's outlying subdivisions amass highest foreclosure tallies in 2007
Most foreclosed homes in the Las Vegas Valley are concentrated in newer subdivisions and have average home ages of less than 10 years, a local housing market analyst shows.
ZIP codes 89131 and 89031 had 792 and 681 foreclosure sales in 2007, respectively, according to Las Vegas-based research firm SalesTraq. The average age of those foreclosed homes was 5.8 years in the 89131 area and 8.2 years in 89031.
The average age of homes in the top 10 foreclosure ZIP codes in Clark County ranged from 4.5 years in 89148 (537 foreclosures) to 25.1 years in 89108 (395 foreclosures). The median was eight years.
Washington — The mayor of Las Vegas came to town to discuss the mortgage mess last week and brought one very simple request: Send money.
The best thing Congress could do to help the city through the crisis, Oscar Goodman testified on the Hill, is free up some cash so Las Vegas can buy foreclosed properties that are blighting neighborhoods.
Congress is entertaining such an offer. Proposals in the House and Senate would allocate from $4 billion to $10 billion to communities hardest hit by the mortgage meltdown.
Republicans, however, are hesitant to push local governments more deeply into the landlord business.
They question whether government, rather than private-sector forces, does the best job of buying, rehabilitating and managing real estate. President Bush is cool to the idea, but he has stopped short of a veto threat.
Goodman told the House Financial Services Committee that when he first took office, blight in a neighborhood meant a broken window. Now blight is defined by tracts of homes where multiple properties are abandoned and in foreclosure.
Las Vegas has seen a threefold increase in foreclosures during the past year, from 20,000 homes in 2006 to 60,000 in 2007, Goodman testified. Half the homes on the market are there because of foreclosure, he said.
Being able to tap funds to scoop up abandoned homes would help turn those neighborhoods around, he said. To fill the houses quickly with residents, the city would offer them as affordable housing, always in high demand in the Las Vegas market.
Goodman told the panel, “I think in some way some good can come out of the bad.”
Congress has been wrestling with the best way to respond to the mortgage crisis since the start of this year, and continues to struggle with a solution that could pass both chambers and get the president’s signature.
Even though the Senate overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan package last week that includes various elements to help builders avert massive losses, community housing groups complained the bill does not go far enough to help homeowners who need immediate assistance.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican Sen. John Ensign supported the Senate plan, which passed 84-12.
Reid was pleased last week to have gotten the bill out of the Senate, but the road ahead remains rough.
The House plan under consideration broadens the aid that would be available to those who need to rewrite their mortgages, and includes $10 billion, rather than $4 billion under the Senate proposal, to be shared among hard-hit communities such as Las Vegas that want to buy properties.
The House is also lining up a vote for early next week on a smaller housing aid bill that includes a plan to give first-time homeowners a tax-free loan of up to $7,500 toward their down payments.
Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley and Republican Rep. Jon Porter supported the down payment assistance package in committee last week, and they would likely support it if it comes to a full vote on the House floor.
“We need to speed along this help for families in Nevada and nationwide and we need to do it now,” Berkley said in a statement after the committee vote.
Berkley also supports the broader House plan, but Porter and Nevada’s other Republican lawmaker in the House, Rep. Dean Heller, will be asked in coming discussions where they stand on the bill.
Goodman was hopeful last week that “a lot of good could come out of this.”
But at this point, it’s difficult to see a clear end game. Las Vegas homeowners who are in trouble, as well as neighbors who are watching for-sale signs pop up on their streets, may need to hang in there a little longer before aid arrives.
Joseph Iuliucci, a Las Vegas foreclosure specialist at Prudential Americana Group, has never been busier. He has more than 500 listings and was among the top 10 home sellers nationwide for the Prudential Real Estate franchise chain last year. Mr. Iuliucci needs a staff of 22 agents and assistants to stay on top of things.
Data from First American CoreLogic, a research firm based in Santa Ana, Calif., show that lender-owned homes account for roughly one out of nine homes listed for sale. In some places, sales of lender-owned homes or ones threatened with foreclosure are dominating local markets. Foreclosure-related transactions accounted for 52% of all sales in the Las Vegas area in March, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.
Once a month or so, Prudential's Mr. Iuliucci takes prospective buyers on bus tours of foreclosure hot spots, such as a cul de sac where five of seven houses are lender-owned. Such tours are becoming common across the country